Legatus Analytics is a London-based hybrid intelligence firm that combines advanced data analytics approaches with human expertise to produce the most powerful insights.


Designing evidence-based methods to produce probabilistic judgements, preparing you for the uncertainty arising from a volatile world.

Developing a range of risk models, allowing you to explore the consequences of your decisions in a safe environment.

Modelling the information environment, enabling you to predict threats and manage your reputational risk.

Integrating quantitative data into the investigation of third parties and other due diligence activities, helping you to better know your associates.

Targeting research on market-entry or complex transactions, better informing your strategic investment decisions.

Data-driven analysis can make sense of large amounts of information, but it struggles to cope with isolated cases.

Using our extensive information network to deliver graded intelligence with known provenance.

Relying on a data-led approach to your problems, which utilises machine learning and other quantitative techniques to create an evidence-based foundation for analysis.

Sourcing and capturing domain expertise, ensuring our analysis and modelling reflects reality not theory.



Most investment risk is derived from political risk. Knowing what drives political events and accurately forecasting their likelihood is crucial to making the right call. Sometimes just knowing how uncertain to be gives you the advantage over your competitors. We provide a range of political forecasting services, from scenario-generation and planning, through to evidence-based probabilistic forecasts about particular outcomes of interest.


Global systems introduce great complexity. Risks are often interdependent and their impacts can be compounding, and yet we may lack sufficient data to quantify these risks accurately. We build risk models which input data where it is available and human judgement where it is not. These models, which reflect our uncertainty about the world, allow you to understand your risk exposure and estimate the effectiveness of potential mitigation measures before you invest in them.


In today’s dynamic, complex and expansive information environment, reputational damage can start with a single spark and spread like wildfire. Keeping track of everything that is being written about you, or predicting the impact of what you say is a daunting but necessary task. We use the latest approaches in target audience analysis to identify the information that is relevant to you and track its impact on the groups you care about.


You rely on your partners. In an increasingly interconnected world it is difficult to separate their fault from your liability. Numerous case studies have shown that a clean track record is no guarantee of a problem-free future. That’s why we take a data-driven, probabilistic approach to due diligence. We conduct third party investigations which don’t just rely on specific information about an organisation: we also take a detailed look at broader patterns and the risks associated with particular market sectors and categories of partner, to give you the bigger picture.


Each market and sector has its own unique set of drivers. We understand the wide range of external factors that have the potential to determine the outcome of your investment decisions. The data relating to emerging markets may be sparse and unreliable, and the lack of precedent may obscure exposure to significant risks such as market nationalisation or dramatic changes in the regulatory environment. We use structured scenario development to make sure you have weighed up all possibilities in your calculations.



Data-driven analysis can make sense of large amounts of information, but it struggles to cope with isolated cases. Humans can provide detailed insights, but their effort can’t be scaled. Both approaches in isolation are fallible. We use a ‘hybrid’ approach, drawing on the best features of data analytics and human expertise to bring you cutting-edge support for your decisions.


Sound judgements start with sound information. Our research method begins by asking the right questions and seeking out the best information. Our extensive proprietary networks are combined with a broad range of harvested data (traditional and alternative) to turn information into intelligence. This increases situational awareness in the present, boosts your capacity to manage risks and opportunities in the future, and delivers you a crucial advantage.


Failing to analyse the data that’s out there leads to an over-reliance on gut instinct and persuasive personalities in decision-making. Data analytics provides context, historical precedent and auditable evidence for your decisions. Integrating data analytics with human judgement has been shown to improve the accuracy of forecasting. We use cutting-edge machine learning, text-analysis and quantitative model-building to ensure you can spot the hidden patterns and don’t overlook the obvious.


Even with powerful modern technologies, there are problems which only humans can resolve and questions which only humans can answer. The power of our approach is that it harnesses human cognition for the analytical tasks which are best performed by people. We specialise in eliciting expert judgement in a form which can be easily integrated into our broader analysis, and which is interchangeable with quantitative data.


Legatus Analytics is a London-based hybrid intelligence firm that combines advanced data analytics approaches with the very best human expertise. We blend data analysis with expert judgement to revolutionise the production of risk analysis. Our interdisciplinary team of experienced specialists draw on their unique skills and backgrounds to help our clients manage uncertainty efficiently.

Dr Alia Brahimi is a strategic advisor to a range of senior decision-makers. She has held academic positions at Oxford University and the London School of Economics, and has served as an expert witness to the UK Defence Select Committee. Alia is the author of Jihad and Just War in the War on Terror (OUP, 2010) as well as a number of policy briefs and articles on counter-terrorism and the MENA region. She has written for a variety of media platforms, including for the Telegraph and the Guardian, and has appeared as a commentator on TV and radio, including on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, BBC Ten O’Clock News, CNN, National Public Radio (USA) and BBC Newsnight. Alia read for her MPhil and DPhil (PhD) in International Relations at Oxford University, where she also conducted her postdoctoral research.

Peter Coghill has enjoyed a wide-ranging career in intelligence, analysis, business consultancy and engineering. He worked in government within the defence and intelligence domain for over a decade, in which time he deployed to Afghanistan as an operational analyst to support the UK military in pursuit of its counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism objectives, and helped to develop the military’s extremist network analysis methods. More recently he worked for BAE Systems Applied Intelligence, assisting military and other government customers by designing bespoke analytical systems and delivering operational support. Peter has also designed and developed machine learning solutions that support decision-making in the public and private sectors.

Nick Hare has worked in various roles across the UK Ministry of Defence, the Cabinet Office and the intelligence community for 15 years, most recently within Defence Intelligence, where he was responsible for professionalising intelligence analysis. Within government Nick pioneered the use of structured analytical methods and quantitative risk models in the intelligence community. He has been instrumental in designing and delivering intelligence analysis training for the UK intelligence community. An economist by training, Nick has worked on a range of projects to measure the effectiveness of interventions in complex and dynamic security environments.

Dr Christopher Mackmurdo is a strategic intelligence professional and a longstanding champion of the hybrid intelligence approach, which combines human expertise with machine learning techniques. From 2005 -14, he served as the UK Government’s principal specialist on international terrorism and Head of National Security Research at the UK Foreign Office, where he was responsible for assessing global terrorism risks to the UK. Christopher has extensive experience developing evidence-based counter-terrorism and CVE policies in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, and supporting strategic decision-making through his work for the National Security Council, the Joint Intelligence Committee and COBR. He co-authored the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST, in 2006, 2009 and 2011, and conducted a review of the UK’s international ‘Prevent’ strategy in 2013.

Dr Chris Wragg worked as a counter-terrorism intelligence analyst for 12 years. In that period, he spent time in Iraq working within the US-led Combined Intelligence Operations Centre, led the Iraq counter-terrorism team in the UK’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, and worked for the Global Coalition against Daesh. During this time, he supported military and law enforcement operations to disrupt terrorism, and helped the UK government and its allies in developing a range of methods to analyse social media content and measure the effectiveness of counter-terrorism strategy. Since leaving UK government service, Chris has worked on projects to classify large textual datasets and has helped to develop software tools to conduct text analytics and perform cyber risk analysis.



This report quantifies the probability of a range of scenarios that the UK might face in the next two years in the run-up to Brexit. The probabilities for these scenarios are combined into a single Brexit Risk Index, which provides a new metric to chart political, economic and social turbulence in the challenging period ahead. It draws on Legatus Analytics’ hybrid approach, incorporating expert judgement and data analysis to produce valuable insights into Brexit-related risk exposure.